Investing

Market Timing Is Impossible… Right?!

By Adam O'Dell  |  November 8, 2018

“You can’t time the market.” 

That’s what you’ve been told, right?!

Like many bold claims… it’s only half true.

And if you mistakenly believe that half-truth to be wholly true, you’re missing out on a powerful and surprisingly easy way to make money in the markets.

I’ll get to that half-true part in a minute.

Let me first introduce you to a man who has, indeed, gained tremendous wealth by successfully doing what you’ve been told can’t be done: timing the market.

His name is John W. Henry.

The Shy Businessman

The Boston Globe described him as a “shy businessman.”

And I wouldn’t be surprised if you haven’t heard of him. He certainly doesn’t have the clout of a Buffett or Soros or Icahn.

Yet Forbes estimated his net worth at $2.7 billion last year.

And if you’re a sports fan… you may know he’s the principal owner of the Boston Red Sox, an English soccer team, and a NASCAR racing team.

But John Henry didn’t make his money in sports. That’s just where he spent his fortune.

He made it in the markets.

He made it by timing the markets, actually.

A Mechanical Trend-Following Model

John’s parents were soybean farmers in Illinois. He began trading corn and soybean futures in the early 1970s. And he soon developed what we’d now call a “mechanical trend-following model,” though no one on Wall Street or Main Street at the time understood much about what he was doing.

Essentially, he was timing the markets at a time when everyone thought it was impossible to time the markets.

He’d simply buy things that were already moving higher… aiming to time each market’s bullish runs.

And he’d also short (bet against) things that were already trending lower… aiming to time each market’s bearish drops.

To people who believed it’s impossible to time the market…

And to people who put Warren Buffett’s style of investing on a moral pedestal…

John Henry’s market-timing approach seemed both foolish and irreverent.

But his results are in black and white.

John Henry made a ton of money timing the markets.

Enough to buy a handful of professional sports teams just because he’s always been into sports!

People Say YOU Can’t Time the Markets… 

…and they’re half right about that.

YOU… making discretionary decisions about when you should buy and when you should sell… are very, very unlikely to have real, lasting success at timing the markets.

I’m not picking on you.

I say the same thing about myself.

I’m affected by the same cognitive biases, emotional stressors, and computational deficiencies that all investors are – which routinely trick us into buying when we ought to be selling, and vice versa.

None of that makes us stupid, or bad people. It just means it’s really difficult to achieve lasting success if you’re making gut decisions about market timing, day in and day out.

Systematic Market-Timing Is the Answer… 

John Henry’s “secret” to success was his systematic approach.

He made zero decisions based on judgement, intuition, or gut feel.

Instead, every buy and sell decision was based on real-time market prices and clearly-defined rules – as dictated by the algorithm he developed.

This systematic approach to market timing is the only truly objective one.

And it’s the only approach to timing the market that actually works over time.

That’s really why I was motivated to develop my own systematic market-timing model a few years ago.

Frankly, I don’t know when the top in stocks is coming. But I do know a systematic approach is my only chance at timing the market’s major ups and downs over the next several years.

My 10X Profits service is the culmination of my research into mechanical market-timing.

Driven by an algorithm I developed, my market-timing model tells me – with 100% clarity – when to be long and when to be short.

Just like John Henry’s model… there are no grey areas… no gut decisions… and no second-guessing.

Tested Through a Full Market Cycle

I’ve been sharing live market-timing signals since late 2016 and have historical analysis covering a full market cycle – including the final years of the 2002-2007 bull market, the 2007 top, the 2008 crash… and the now longest-running bull market since.

My 10X readers have complimentary access to my model’s performance statistics over that full market cycle, in a special report titled 100 Paths to 10X Profits.

The report details how you can use my market-timing model’s buy and sell signals to “time the market,” and beat it handsomely – with both higher returns and less risk than many passive approaches.

The 100 Paths to 10X Profits report is only available to 10X subscribers.

But next week, I’m going to share with you two of its key research studies.

One reveals a better way to implement the classic “60/40” portfolio. (Hint: it involves market timing.)

The other highlights the eye-popping financial gains you can achieve with a little-known “hedge” strategy I developed (Hint: it involves market timing.)

Those studies and my 100 Paths to 10X Profits report are crucial to your understanding of just how well market timing can work. And I’m excited to dig into them next week!

“You can’t time the market,” is a misleading half-truth.

If you reject it, you’re halfway to making some serious money… timing the market!

Adam O'Dell

As Chief Investment Strategist for Dent Research, Adam O’Dell has one purpose in mind: to find and bring to subscribers investment opportunities that return the maximum profit with minimum risk. He achieves this with his perfect blend of technical and fundamental analysis.MORE FROM AUTHOR